August 2, 2007

In the last two presidential elections, experts have discovered a new predictor of how Americans vote: Republicans win decisively among regular church-goers and Democrats take the secular vote.

So the recent Gallup poll showing how church-goers rate the Republican presidential candidates takes on greater importance. Rudy Giuliani loses support among Republican church goers while other candidates hold their ground.

Religion is an awkward issue for this field of Republicans. Giuliani, a Catholic, opposes many of his own church’s social views. Romney has had difficulty because of his Mormon faith. And Fred Thompson, once a member of the Church of Christ, does not appear to be a regular church-goer himself.

Americans may believe in the separation of church and state, but this field of Republican candidates must bolster their appeal to the church-going base that elected Ronald Reagan and George W. Bush.

I’m David Davenport of Pepperdine University and the Hoover Institution for

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