Paris, France (CNSNews.com) - French voters won't play any role in the U.S. presidential election, but daily media reports and analyses of the campaign make no attempt to hide the fact that Sen. John Kerry is the favorite candidate here.

The results of a recent TNS/Sofres Le Monde poll come as no surprise: Only 16 percent of French respondents said they would like President Bush to win, versus 72 percent who favored Kerry.

Guillaume Parmentier, director of the Center on the United States at the French Institute of International Relations, said that view was shared not only by the French population but also by French officials.

A similar stance could be found further afield in Europe, he argued.

"Even the countries which supported the U.S. war in Iraq would be happier with a more mainstream type of president in Washington, one who would be more acceptable to all the Europeans," Parmentier said.

There is a lot of interest here in the campaign - so much so that Anna Marie Mattson, the press attache for Democrats Abroad in France, said, "the French are paying more attention to these elections than the Americans are."

America has always been considered a friend and an ally in Europe, and many French people are uncomfortable with the current state of discord between the two nations, which they see as a reversal of past relations.

Most blame the United States -- and the Bush administration in particular -- for the state of affairs.

"There is a sense of disempowerment," because Europeans are frustrated with American policies and would like to see a return to more harmonious relations, Parmentier said.

While the Le Monde poll found that French opinion of the U.S. had deteriorated over the past three years, 72 percent of those polled said they had a favorable opinion of Americans. But only 21 percent had a favorable opinion of Bush.

Consequently, the upcoming elections are seen as one of the most important ever, with hopes that if Kerry wins, bilateral relations will rapidly improve.

"Europe would have different expectations from Kerry because the tone of the administration would be different," said Parmentier.

A majority of respondents in the poll said they believed U.S. policy in Iraq would be different if Kerry were elected.

At the same time, however, analysts warn against any expectation of European participation in Iraq, whatever the election outcome.

"We could find ourselves with a series of disappointments if Kerry expects European military support in Iraq," Parmentier said. "If Kerry expects Europe to chip in and pay for the war, he will be disappointed too."

And in the event that "their" man is not successful on Nov. 4, French officials retain some hope.

"French officials believe relations could improve even if Bush is re-elected but then chooses to be influenced by different ideologies," Parmentier said.

"It will depend on who his cabinet appointments are for the next four years."

Send a Letter to the Editor about this article.