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Paris (CNSNews.com) - Lagging in the opinion polls, Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder has hit out at his conservative rival in Germany's Sept. 18 election, telling a party congress Wednesday that society would become "cold and inhumane" under a government led by Angela Merkel.

Attacking the opposition's economic and social security reform plans, he said Germany under Merkel would be characterized by "over-competition, jealousy and selfishness," with low wages for workers and low taxes for the wealthy.

Earlier the center-right Christian Democratic Union (CDU) endorsed Merkel, who could become Germany's first woman chancellor. During a convention speech, Merkel was cheered as she attacked Schroeder's political record, which she blamed for causing the country's record 12 percent unemployment.

Schroeder called for the early elections last May when his Social Democratic Party (SPD) lost regional elections to the conservatives in North Rhine Westphalia, a state his party had ruled for decades.

Dissatisfaction with Schroeder after seven years in office is extremely high and Germans see little prospect for optimism after five years of practically no economic growth.

Since campaigning began, polls have consistently shown Merkel in the lead. A recent German ARD television survey found that 42 percent would vote for Merkel, and 31 percent for the incumbent.

Another poll, released by the veteran Allensbach Institute for Opinion Research, put the CDU at 43.5 percent and the SPD at 28.1.

Some in the Merkel camp worry that the CDU might not win enough of a majority to govern without having to form an undesirable coalition.

But no matter which party becomes the CDU's coalition partner, analysts believe that Germany's relations with the United States are likely to improve.

Schroeder gained popularity in the run-up to the Iraq war by vocally criticizing the U.S. and President Bush.

One of the cornerstones of his European foreign policy has been a strong partnership with French President Jacques Chirac, also a strong opponent of the war.

"It is likely from opinion polls that Angela Merkel will be the next chancellor and although it is still unclear who will be the main partner in government, there will be a partial rebalancing of relations with the west, better relations with Washington, and probably a broadening of partners inside the European Union," said Antonio Missiroli, chief policy analyst at the European Policy Center in Brussels.

He said Germany would also seek to improve relations with central European nations, particularly Poland - a U.S. ally - and move away from the exclusive relationship with Russia which Schroeder has maintained through his friendship with President Vladimir Putin.

"Merkel's Germany will want to be more central in the European debate, not just part of one faction - the Franco-German axis versus everybody else - but a big country that because of its size, its geographical location and its political alliances is a capital for mediating, brokering deals and also dictating the guidelines for European foreign policy," Missiroli said.

Coalition options

Depending on the outcome of the elections, Merkel might lead a coalition with the Christian Social Union (CSU), the conservatives' Bavarian partner. Another possibility would be an alliance with the liberal Free Democrats (FDP), who would also favor warmer relations with Washington.

However, in an outcome that could result from a left-leaning vote in the former East Germany, Merkel could be forced into an alliance with Schroeder's SPD.

According to German tradition, the junior coalition party would provide the foreign minister.

Analysts believe improved relations with the U.S. would become less of a priority in the event of a CDU-SPD "grand coalition."

In 2002, Schroeder won reelection through popular backing for his anti-U.S. and anti-war stance.

Merkel, by contrast, showed her support for the U.S. when she visited Washington in 2003, a few weeks before the beginning of the Iraq war. She accused Schroeder of encouraging Saddam Hussein's dictatorship because of his refusal to support the U.S.

During this campaign however, she has kept quiet about the Iraq war and most other foreign policy issues.

"She is playing this card very moderately in the current electoral campaign," said Missiroli. "The majority of the German public remains opposed to the war in Iraq."

Meanwhile, Schroeder recently spoke out against possible U.S. military action in Iran, evidently hoping to garner votes once again by appealing to anti-American sentiment.

Another aspect of German foreign policy likely to be affected if Merkel becomes the next chancellor is that of United Nations reform.

World leaders meeting in New York will vote on U.N. reform proposals just a few days after the German elections.

Germany has been pressing for a permanent seat on an expanded Security Council, a bid not supported by some of the current permanent members, including the U.S. and China.

"So far, Merkel has said nothing about backing the German bid or withdrawing it. There has been a deafening silence on the part of the CDU on that," said Missiroli.

He said if the bid for a permanent seat failed, as seems likely, he did not expect a Merkel government to renew it.

Merkel and Schroeder will face off in a televised debate on September 4.

See earlier story:
Early Election in Germany Could Lead to Warmer Ties With US (May 25, 2005)

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