7:09am EST
MAYBE THE NEWS AIN'T ALL BAD FOR THE GOP:A panel discussion moderated by the CEO of Salem Communications Ed Atsinger. The two main contributors - Michael Barone and Hugh Hewitt. With questions thrown in from other talk hosts Dennis Prager and Dr. Albert Mohler in attendance...
BARONE - The effect of new media, I believe will continue to dominate the direction of near elections. The revolution of new media did in 2004. (Swift Boat, Air National Guard stories are just two examples). The Dan Rather broadcast would have gone unchallenged if it had happened 10 years previous. In the 1668 the same thing happened - the de-licensing of the printing press allowed the pamphlet to shape the message.
In terms of '06-'08 specifically - things look really bad for the GOP. Two ways to look at the numbers...
1. Use political science rules of thumb.
By these numbers the outlook for the GOP is not good.
2. Steady and Static, political balance.
House elections - 5 straight house elections narrow bands, but GOP consistent,
Regionals contour of support - remaining steady as well. Not nearly as much
extreme changes...According to the second theory, it comes down to the cultural wars - and the voters have been relatively unresponsive to the highs and lows of the ups and downs on everything from gas prices to approval ratings. It just doesn't seem to matter as much - its more about the culture battle. The key has become turnout! Turnout may be lousy - immigration, spending, earmarks, Polling does not indicate turnout.
In California - Duke Cunningham's replacement race turned out well for GOP. 53% Primary Republicans vs. 44% Primary Democrats.
Ohio - 52% Primary Republicans vs, 49% Primary Democrats (matches 1992, 1994 numbers)
It IS a time of concern for Republicans, but on closer examinations, on balance not bad. IF turnout favors Democrats, Republicans COULD lose some seats.
Since 1995 the culture war seems to have had great impact on the voter's mindset and talk radio (like the pamphlet in 1668)- MIGHT - have something to do with this...
HEWITT - Make races outside your own backyard important...
HEWITT - "Can Republicans achieve a net pick-up in 2006?"
BARONE - "Can they, they can. Yes they can, but they have to win the close races. In 2000, Democrats with Bob Toricelli, the one man who could beat Chuck Schumer to a microphone. But it would be somewhat like breaking a safe. All the tumblers have to fall in our favor."
HEWITT - "Are there candidates that we as evangelicals can get really excited about?"
BARONE - "Well think how the NYTimes and the Washington Post would play it up if Democrats were running black candidates for Governor in Pennsylvania and Ohio?"
