Despite sitting atop an organization with the largest concentration of financial brainpower since Alexander Hamilton sat there alone, Greenspan respectively found himself optimistic before a recession (1990); pessimistic before a great boom (1996, irrational exuberance); optimistic before another recession (2000); and pessimistic before an even-greater boom (2003). While not a bad central banker by any reasonable reckoning, Greenspan always has been an abysmal forecaster. To wit, here’s a passage from the Fed meeting of June 27-28, 2000.

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