Iran Delayed But Not Deterred in Pursuit of Nuclear Weapons
Jerusalem (CNSNews.com) - International pressure has delayed Iran's acquisition of nuclear weapons, but Tehran is still pursuing an atomic bomb and could achieve its nuclear goals within three years, an Israeli Intelligence assessment said.According the Israeli Military's annual "National Estimate of the Situation," the International Atomic Energy Agency's increased surveillance of Iran's nuclear development program has pushed back Iran's acquisition of a nuclear bomb by three years, the Israeli daily Ma'ariv reported on Thursday.
The report says that Iran is quickly becoming the most significant threat to Israel's existence.
Dr. Ephraim Kam, deputy director of the Jaffee Center for Strategic Studies in Tel Aviv, said the three-year estimate for Iran to obtain nuclear weapons is reasonable.
"Iran is closer to nuclear capability that it was two years ago," said Kam. "On the one hand, it is closer to this capability [but on the other] this international pressure probably has led to some postponement of the nuclear program."
The IAEA, by forcing Iran to make disclosures and causing Iran to hide certain activities,would have caused some delay, Kam said.
About three years would be "reasonable" for the Iranians to take control of the technology, learn how to use it and weaponize it, he said. But he added that Israeli and U.S. estimations have been mistaken in the past. In fact, both thought Iran already would have nuclear weapons.
Kam said he believes Iran can still be stopped by international pressure, especially if the Europeans join the United States in bringing the issue before the United Nations Security Council, which could impose economic sanctions on Iran.
Until now, European nations have not favored such a move, preferring to exert diplomatic pressure on Tehran. But recently Iran was forced to admit that it had purchased centrifuges used to enrich uranium on the black market from a Pakistani nuclear expert.
Visiting U.S. Senator Sam Brownback (R.-Kan.) said earlier this week that Iran was a "very difficult issue" and Tehran was clearly working on nuclear weapons.
Brownback said that the U.S. hoped to take Iran to the U.N. Security Council over the developments, but he didn't expect anything to happen on that front before the U.S. national elections in November.
Israel expressed its concern over Iran's development of nuclear weapons to IAEA head Mohammed ElBaradei, who was in Israel two weeks ago.
Iran already possesses the Shihab-3 missiles with a big enough range to strike all of Israel, Saudi Arabia and Turkey. Experts say those missiles can be fitted with non-conventional warheads.
And Iran already is in the process of developing the Shihab-4, which some say could have a range enabling it to strike all of Europe and even the East Coast of the U.S.
Earlier this week, unconfirmed press reports said Israel already is planning a military option to take care of the Iranian nuclear reactor in Bushehr if all else fails.
According to a report in London's Sunday Times , an unnamed Israeli defense source confirmed that Israeli military rehearsals for such an operation already had taken place.
The source was quoted as saying that Israel would "on no account permit Iranian reactors - especially the one being built in Bushehr with Russian help - to go critical."
The source said that if international efforts failed, Israel is "very confident we'll be able to demolish the ayatollahs' nuclear aspirations in one go."
In 1981, Israeli jets bombed the primarily French-built Osiraq nuclear reactor near Baghdad just as the Iraqis were ready to star the radioactive process.
The move enraged the world and brought international condemnation on Israel; but 10 years later, at the start of the 1991 Gulf War, Western nations admitted that Israel had acted correctly and praised Israel for its foresight.
Iran already has warned Israel against taking similar action.
Kam said he did not know if the reports were true or not. "Logically it could be," he said. Israel must at least think about such options. But, he added, he didn't think a decision to do so had been made.
Iran's nuclear aspirations are only part of the story, said Dr. Yoram Kahati, a research fellow at the International Policy Institute for Counter-Terrorism near Tel Aviv.
"Iran is a direct threat from the development of non-conventional weapons...[and] a major threat as far as Israel is concerned," Kahati said.
The anti-Israel and anti-Semitic ideology of the regime has not changed, and every day there is something against Israel in their press, Kahati said. Maybe they would use weapons of mass destruction to show the world that this is the Islamic answer to the "Zionist enemy," he added.
But there also is an indirect threat from Iran in its support of terrorism.
"Iran is supporting terrorism usually indirectly [by] helping other bodies...[with] money, arms, ideology," Kahati said.
The Lebanon-based Hizballah, which sits on Israel's northern border, is an ideological soulmate with Iran and receives financial backing from Iran as well as logistical help from Syria - the main powerbroker in Lebanon.
Israeli officials have said that Hizballah has 10,000 Iranian missiles along the border aimed at northern Israeli cities.
Iran has become increasingly involved in supporting Palestinian terrorist groups starting with the Palestinian Islamic Jihad - which is ideologically in tune with Tehran; then Hamas, and to a lesser extent, groups belonging to Palestinian Authority Chairman Yasser Arafat's Fatah faction, such as the Al-Aksa Martyrs Brigades, Kahati said.