Palestinians, Israelis Speculate on Post-Arafat Era
Jerusalem (CNSNews.com) - With Palestinian Authority Chairman Yasser Arafat said to be hours away from death, Israelis and Palestinians were mulling what a post-Arafat Palestinian entity would look like -- and how it will develop.Arafat, who has been in a coma in a French military hospital in Paris for days, left no heir apparent, and there is no one that can take his place as the embodiment of the Palestinian cause -- an iconic status he has held for decades.
Israeli experts have predicted that the situation in the territories could easily deteriorate into chaos, but moderate Palestinians are hoping that democratic elections will set the future course for the Palestinians.
Bassam Eid, director of the Palestinian Human Rights Monitoring Group, said he does not believe there will be a dramatic change in the territories when Arafat dies.
"Nothing will happen," Eid said. "Everyone knows [that Arafat] will die one day."
Eid recalled that when Hamas spiritual leader Sheikh Ahmed Yassin was killed in an Israeli targeted killing, everyone expected an outbreak of violence in the territories but none ensued.
"I think the Palestinians are already fed up from Arafat, from the Palestinian Authority, from the intifadah and from Israel," Eid said. "They are already living in chaos for two years."
The PA will be able to survive only if it has the support of the Palestinian people, but if the leaders are criticized like the current Iraqi Prime Minister Iyad Allawi, they will not be able to rule, he said.
According to Palestinian law, if he the president becomes incapacitated or resigns he should be replaced for a short transitional period by the speaker of the parliament for not more than 60 days, said Dr. Mustafa Barghouti, who heads a non-profit organization, the Palestine Monitor, and is involved in the push for democratic elections. During that time, elections for a new president should be held.
The most important thing is that free democratic elections take place in order to establish a legitimate government that will ensure the rights of the Palestinian people and bring about free and democratic reforms, Barghouti said.
He described the Palestinian political scene as containing three trends: the Fatah, run by Arafat and also representing those who currently are in control; the Islamic trend, which is typified by groups like Hamas and Islamic Jihad that want to establish an Islamic state encompassing the West Bank, Gaza and all of Israel; and the upcoming democratic alternative.
"There is a silent huge majority" between Fatah and Hamas, said Barghouti, who estimated that majority to be up to 50 percent of the population. He pointed to the fact that some 67 percent of eligible voters in the West Bank and Gaza Strip registered to vote in a recent registration drive.
The challenge will be to get them to participate in what is being called the Mubadara - the Palestinian National Initiative, Barghouti said. "The idea is not to sit down and be reactive but to be proactive," he added.
PA Prime Minister Abu Ala and the former prime minister and PLO deputy to Arafat, Abu Mazen, have split responsibilities for maintaining order in the Palestinian territories since Arafat became comatose.
Palestinian spokeswoman Hanan Ashrawi said in an Israeli radio interview on Tuesday that so far there has been no transition to a new generation of leaders but that there are laws in place "to effect a smooth transition without any kind of internal weakness or breakdown."
According to Ashrawi, the various factions have committed to work together in a cohesive way. Should anything happen to Arafat, then the legal system of elections would be put in motion, Ashrawi said, and Hamas would be welcome to join that process.
"If Hamas wants to play the democratic game according to the law, then they are more than welcome, and I'm sure that they will participate as a political party," she said.
Chaos
But Israeli analyst Shalom Harari of the International Policy Institute on Counter-Terrorism and a former advisor to the Ministry of Defense on Palestinian affairs said chaos is bound to erupt - even if Palestinians stick together in the short term.
For the mourning period of 40 days after the funeral of Arafat, the Palestinians may "try to keep a facade of national unity," Harari said. "But it's only a facade. [There is] a lot of potential [for] confrontation."
On the Palestinian street, there is a lot of chaos already and infighting between different factions within the PLO over small things like who is getting a salary or who controls which street.
Then there is the conflict between the various security and intelligence organizations and the struggle between Arafat's Fatah and the Islamic bloc, Harari said.
Hamas has called for a united leadership but that is the last thing Fatah wants, Harari said.
Prof. Barry Rubin of the Global Research in International Affairs Center said it's possible that the entire Palestinian movement "might well disintegrate" because Hamas is making demands and there would not be anyone left to run the PLO.
Israeli-Palestinian relations
Secretary of State Colin Powell said he has been "impressed by the manner in which the Palestinian leaders back in the territories have been discussing among themselves how to move forward, not yet knowing what Arafat's fate is."
Powell noted there had been a "sense of quiet" recently and said he hoped it could be "maintained" and "give us something to work with."
Last week a suicide bomber in Tel Aviv killed three people and wounded dozens of others.
On Tuesday, two mortars were fired at Israeli communities in the Gaza Strip - one landed next to a school and the second hit a house. A Kassam rocket fired from Gaza landed in the Negev Desert.
Two Palestinians were killed by Israeli troops as they crawled toward the Gaza-Israel boundary fence on Tuesday.
British Prime Minister Tony Blair is due to meet with President Bush this week, and he wants a "signal of intent" to revive the Middle East peace process.
Ashrawi said she believes its important that in the coming "phase" with the Palestinians, Israel understands that it has a "partner for peace."
Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon has begun the process of "disengaging" Israel from the Gaza Strip -- planning to uproot thousands of Israelis from their homes and pulling out Israeli forces as a unilateral move -- because, he said, Israel has no partner for peace.
But Rubin, co-author of Yasir Arafat: A Political Biography , said nothing has changed as far as peace talks are concerned.
There won't be anyone to talk to on the Palestinian side except those that say they'll be ready to talk when Israel is ready to give up all of the Gaza Strip and West Bank, including East Jerusalem as well as allow Palestinian refugees and millions of their descendants to return to within Israel's borders, he said.
The issue of the return of Palestinian refugees is a non-starter for Israel, which says it would be like committing demographic suicide.
Nevertheless, he said, the Palestinians may be "some shade better" off when Arafat is dead. "At least the barrier [will be] gone."