Independence-Leaning Parties Predict Narrow Win in Taiwan Election
Pacific Rim Bureau (CNSNews.com) - The political party that has ruled Taiwan for five decades looks set to lose control of the island's parliament for the first time. A narrow victory is predicted in Saturday's election for President Chen Shui-bian's independence-leaning coalition.After a campaign dominated by Chen's controversial plans to draft a new constitution, his Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) and its small, pro-independence partner, the Taiwan Solidarity Union, are predicting a razor-thin majority in the 225-seat National Assembly.
They currently control 100 seats between them.
Despite threats from mainland China, Chen wants a new constitution put to voters in a referendum in 2006 and enacted by the end of his term, two years later.
Beijing covets the Taiwan and sees the new constitution plan as a step towards formalizing Taiwan's de facto independence.
Chen predicts that if his "pan-blue" coalition wins control of the legislature, China will be obliged to negotiate with him to end the half-century-long standoff across the Taiwan Strait, although his opponents, and some analysts, believe relations may on the contrary worsen.
Lien Chan, leader of the opposition Nationalist Party (Kuomintang or KMT), has warned that any attempt to rewrite the constitution, or change the island's official name from the Republic of China (RoC) to Taiwan, could result in war.
The KMT, which leans towards unification with China, ruled Taiwan since it decamped from the mainland in 1949 after losing a civil war to the communists until 2000, when the DPP's Chen won a presidential election.
During this first term, he struggled to work with a parliament controlled by the KMT-led opposition "pan-blue" camp, which has 115 seats.
But since Chen won re-election last March, the "pan-blue" bloc has struggled to make headway, and plans for the constituent parties to merge have failed.
Analysts are predicting a 70 percent turnout in Saturday's poll.
The U.S. has cautioned Chen against any move that could be seen as changing the status quo.
Responding this week to his campaign pledge to change the official name of the island's de facto embassies abroad from "Taipei Economic and Cultural Representative Office" to "Taiwan Mission," State Department spokesman Adam Ereli told a briefing the U.S. did not support such moves.
"These changes of terminology for government-controlled enterprises or economic and cultural offices abroad, in our view, would appear to unilaterally change Taiwan's status, and for that reason we're not supportive of them."
The State Department has also voiced unease about the plans to amend the constitution, although Taiwanese officials say the changes will not affect sovereignty issues.
The changes are needed, they argue, because the current constitution was drawn up at a time the KMT government ruled most of the mainland rather than an island the size of Maryland, and provides for an over-cumbersome, four-tier government structure.
Chen promised in 2000, and again on re-election this year, not to declare independence, not to change the name of Taiwan's government, not to insert the "two-state theory" into the constitution, and not to promote a referendum to change the Taiwan-China status quo.
The "two-state theory" refers to calls by Chen's predecessor, Lee Teng-hui, for relations between China and Taiwan to be conducted along "special state-to-state" lines.
Former president Lee was later expelled from the KMT and is now regarded as the spiritual leader of Chen's pro-independence ally, the Taiwan Solidarity Union.
See earlier story:
US, Taiwan Differ on Plans for Constitution Referendum (Sept. 30, 2004)
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