UPSET POTENTIAL: Possible. The Editors Guild gave their Comedy/Musical award to The Artist and dramatic award to The Descendants. The Artist gets the edge in this showdown.


BEST ACHIEVEMENT IN MAKEUP

Albert Nobbs
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part 2
The Iron Lady

WILL WIN: The Iron Lady
oscar.go.com/nominees/makeup/the-iron-lady

UPSET POTENTIAL: Weak. That Albert Nobbs makeup wasn’t fooling anybody, and despite the excellence of HP8 the visual transformation of Streep to Thatcher really was eerie, almost clone-like.


BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT SUBJECT

The Barber of Birmingham: Foot Soldier of the Civil Rights Movement
God Is the Bigger Elvis
Incident in New Baghdad
Saving Face
The Tsunami and the Cherry Blossom

WILL WIN: Saving Face
oscar.go.com/nominees/documentary-short-subject/saving-face

UPSET POTENTIAL: Strong. The Tsunami and the Cherry Blossom is an artful elegy of the Japan tsunami disaster, but Saving Face—about helping Pakistani women who’ve been disfigured by men having thrown acid on their faces—is the more intimate and has the emotional pull of injustice and unnecessary man-made tragedy.


BEST ANIMATED SHORT FILM

Dimanche/Sunday
The Fantastic Flying Books of Mr. Morris Lessmore
La Luna
A Morning Stroll
Wild Life

WILL WIN: The Fantastic Flying Books of Mr. Morris Lessmore
oscar.go.com/nominees/short-film-animated/the-fantastic-flying-books-of-mr-morris-lessmore

UPSET POTENTIAL: Strong. Three very good films here. Pixar’s creative and charming La Luna could actually benefit from the studio not having an Animated Feature nominee (they haven’t won Short since the Feature category was created), and Wild Life is an evocative different kind of “Western” from Canada, but The Fantastic Flying . . . is pure magic (and from an ex-Pixar artist); it really should be developed into a feature.


BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT FILM

Pentecost
Raju
The Shore
Time Freak
Tuba Atlantic

WILL WIN: Tuba Atlantic
oscar.go.com/nominees/short-film-live-action/tuba-atlantic

UPSET POTENTIAL: Strong. The Shore is by Terry George, who’s written many respected features (Hotel Rwanda, In the Name of the Father), and the story is conventional in an easy-to-like kind of way, plus he’s actually campaigned for this on the Oscar circuit. Raju is a moving story about child kidnapping (and well made), but Tuba Atlantic plays at the same heartstrings of late-in-life regrets as The Shore does, but with a more creative conceit at its core.