Kerry won all sixteen states at the bottom of the fertility list, and the states Sailer correctly identifies as the "Democrats' anchor states" (California and New York) reported fertility rates of only 1.65 and 1.72, respectively.

Does this really amount to a significant electoral impact? Sailer responds with a quick argument that underlines the importance of the fertility factor: "You could predict 74 percent of the variation in Bush's shares just from knowing each state's white fertility rate. When the average fertility goes up by a tenth of a child, Bush's share normally goes up by 4.5 points." That represents a hugely significant demographic factor with an immediate political impact.

Just as Sailer's cover article in The American Conservative appeared, David Brooks addressed the same issue in his op-ed column published in The New York Times. Writing in the December 7, 2004 edition of the paper, Brooks addressed "the new red-diaper babies." Though the old "red-diaper babies" were the offspring of American communists, the new babies Brooks has noticed are those born to parents in Republican-leaning states.

Taking a cue from the social sciences, Brooks identifies high-fertility parents as a new social movement sweeping the nation, a movement known as "natalism." Put simply, natalists are those committed to bearing and raising children. "All across the industrialized world, birth rates are falling--in Western Europe, in Canada and in many regions of the United States," Brooks observes. "People are marrying later and having fewer kids. But spread around this country, and concentrated in certain areas, the natalists defy these trends."

Who are these people? "They are having three, four or more kids. Their personal identity is defined by parenthood. They are more spiritually, emotionally and physically invested in their homes than in any other sphere of life, having concluded that parenthood is the most enriching and elevating thing they can do. Very often they have sacrificed pleasures like sophisticated movies, restaurant dining and foreign travel, let alone competitive careers and disposable income, for the sake of their parental calling."

Just after the election, the Los Angeles Times published a report indicating that President George W. Bush swept most of the fastest-growing counties in America. As a matter of fact, Bush's margin of victory in those counties amounted to nothing less than a landslide. Brooks notes that these fast-growing regions "tend to have the highest concentrations of children." The exploding suburbs feature exploding fertility rates, busy maternity wards, and family-friendly environments.

"If you wanted a one-sentence explanation for the explosive growth of far-flung suburbs," Brooks argues, "it would be that when people get money, one of the first things they do is use it to try to protect their children from bad influences."

Brooks' argument is easy to follow. As he sees it, Republicans have a firm grip on those states and regions marked by high fertility and populated by voters very concerned with the tasks and responsibilities of raising children.