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Middle East Pondering Possible US Attack on Iran

Julie Stahl

Jerusalem Bureau Chief

Jerusalem (CNSNews.com) - As U.S.-British tensions with Iran escalate, many in the Middle East are discussing the possibility -- some say probability -- of a U.S. attack on the Islamic Republic.

Iran, which has long provoked Israel and the West with its nuclear development program, has now earned itself another slap on the wrist from the international community.

On Thursday, the U.N. Security Council issued a statement expressing "grave concern" over Iran's capture of 15 British sailors. The U.K. wanted a stronger statement -- one "deploring" the hostage-taking, but Russia reportedly opposed that suggestion.

Iran's UN mission issued a statement saying the standoff "should be settled through bilateral channels" -- in discussions between the U.K. and Iran, in other words. "The British government's attempt to engage third parties, including the Security Council, with this case is not helpful," Iran said.

Iran insists the British sailors were trespassing in its territorial waters, a contention the U.K. firmly rejects.

This is not the first time that Iran has defied the United Nations. It is currently flouting a U.N. demand to halt its uranium enrichment program -- a process that can be used for building an atomic bomb. Iran has pledged to continue its nuclear pursuits.

President Bush has indicated that the United States would rather not attack Iran. "All options are on the table," he said in 2005, adding that "the use of force is the last option for any president."

Nevertheless, the Arab press is focused on the possibility of a U.S. strike against Iran.

Some of the speculation stems from U.S. war games taking place this week in the Persian Gulf -- the biggest show of strength in the area since the U.S. invaded Iraq in 2003.

The U.S. Navy exercises, which included two aircraft carriers, ended on Thursday. The U.S. reportedly decided to hold the exercises within the past month, amid rising tensions with Iran.

U.S. Undersecretary of State Nicholas Burns told the Senate Foreign Relations Committee on Thursday that the presence of the U.S. warships was not intended "to provoke any military conflict."

Meanwhile, both Qatar and the United Arab Emirates have said the will not allow the U.S. military to launch an attack on Iran from bases in their country.

Nevertheless, Middle East media outlets point to signs that the U.S. may be planning some type of military action directed at Iran.

In a March 1 article, Bahrain's daily Al-Watan reported that hotel occupancy in the Gulf State had reached 90 percent and was expected to increase, with stepped-up U.S. military activity in the country bringing an influx of American and other military correspondents.

The paper also reported that "American military circles" had advised investors with U.S. citizenship to wrap up their business and take their money out of the region due to the "security tension."

"Anyone who has been monitoring U.S. policy since the beginning of the year has noticed a state of alert and military mobilization of the American forces, particularly after Washington announced that Tehran is involved in the violent activities in Baghdad," the paper said. (Translation provided by the Middle East Media Research Institute.)

In a special supplement section called "Firing Line," the Egyptian opposition daily Al-Masri Al-Yawm published a series of reports entitled, "The Next Gulf War - A Crushing American Blow and a Thundering Iranian Response."

One of the articles reviewed what it called U.S. military preparations in the Gulf, including the deployment of a new generation of Patriot missile batteries; the appearance of the two aircraft carriers; an increase in troop deployment in Iraq; and changes in the U.S. senior military command.

The paper also accused the U.S. of activating a "propaganda machine" to turn public opinion against Iran.

Issam Al-Dari, the editor of the Syrian government daily Teshreen, wrote on February 28 that Iran would likely be the next U.S. target in the region.

Al-Dari charged that the U.S. was leading the world from "one destructive war to even more destructive aggression."

The U.S. has accused Syria of backing the insurgency in Iraq; of attempting to overthrow the pro-Western government in Lebanon; and of hosting the headquarters of numerous Palestinian terrorist organizations in Damascus.

Kuwaiti columnist Muhammad Al-Rumihi wrote in the London daily Al-Hayat that the West appears "determined to enter into the 'mother of all wars' - that is, the war against Iran."

But Abd Al-Mun'im Sa'id, director of the Al-Ahram Center for Strategic Studies in Cairo, rejected the possibility of a U.S. strike against Iran, saying the U.S. does not have "sufficient capability to carry out the mission."

In an article in the London daily Al-Sharq Al-Awsat on January 31, Sa'id said he did not believe that there was popular support in the U.S. for such a strike, which would not serve the U.S. goal of creating stability in the region.

Analysts here have differing opinions. Many believe that while a military strike against Iran, whether led by the U.S. or another country, would be costly, striking Iran would cut off support for terrorism at its roots and decrease the violence in Iraq.

Sunni Arab nations, including U.S. allies Saudi Arabia, Egypt and Jordan, are said to be more and more concerned about the growing power and influence of Shiite Iran in the region and its quest for nuclear power.

(Senior Editor Susan Jones contributed to this report.)




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