(CNSNews.com) - U.S. combat casualties are already higher in January than they were in the entire month of December 2007, according to a Cybercast News Service analysis of Pentagon data.

Thus far, there have been twice as many combat casualties in the first weeks of the new year than there were in all of December 2007, the analysis shows. There have been 28 combat-related deaths reported thus far in January (through Jan. 28) in comparison with 14 combat casualties in December (Dec. 1-31).

However, combat causalities are still down sharply compared with the same period a year ago and closely track the declining causality figures that became apparent last fall. American combat deaths are almost 50 percent lower in the first 28 days of January than they were in the same period in 2006.

The Bush administration's "troop surge" strategy, which began early last year, initially resulted in higher causality figures that peaked in May as offensive operations were launched against al Qaeda strongholds.

U.S. combat casualties started to decline in June 2007 and fell sharply for the remainder of the year, the Cybercast News Service analysis shows.

Between June and December 2007, there were 305 combat-related casualties versus 423 for the same months in 2006. This represents a 30 percent decline in combat casualties from 2006 to 2007 for the same seven-month period.

Fred Kagan, a scholar with the conservative American Enterprise Institute, and a chief architect of the surge strategy, told Cybercast News Service he would not be surprised to see causality figures rise again in the coming months.

Now that al Qaeda has been expelled from Baghdad and Anbar Province, the U.S. is in a stronger position to pursue "a defeated enemy" in other parts of Iraq, he explained.

Offensive operations are now being concentrated against al Qaeda in the northern part of Iraq, Kagan said. For this reason, he anticipates seeing more casualties in the Diyala, Ninawa, Kirkuk and Salahuddin provinces.

On Monday, five U.S. soldiers were killed in Mosul, the capital of Ninawa, when their patrol came under attack from small arms fire. However, the data alone do not capture the reality on the ground, Kagan said. The U.S. is moving aggressively to prevent al Qaeda from reconstituting its network, and these efforts translate into causalities, he explained.

"This is one reason why drawing our forces down too rapidly is risky because we want to make sure that they [Al Qaeda operatives] don't rebuild the kind of safe havens they had in 2006."

While he is "comfortable" with the idea of moving toward pre-surge troop levels at the middle of this year, Kagan opposes the idea of further reducing troops below pre-surge levels for the duration of 2008.

However, Brian Katulis, a senior fellow with the liberal Center for American Progress (CAP), told Cybercast News Service in an interview that the time has come to begin a "phased military redeployment" from Iraq that could be completed in a logistically reasonable way over a 12- to 18-month period.

"Our argument for a while has been that a defined end-date as a goal for redeployment is actually helpful, because it motivates and creates incentives to get Iraqis to take control of their own affairs and to take care of power-sharing disputes," Katulis said. "If the U.S. extends an open-ended commitment without conditions, we could unwittingly foster a culture of dependency that is dangerous and dysfunctional."

While the decline in violence is cause for encouragement, there are several factors at work that suggest Iraq is experiencing a "temporary lull," as opposed to permanent stability, Katulis suggested.

There are more than two million displaced persons inside the country, he said. Moreover, there are internal tensions between Sunni tribes that could make national reconciliation more difficult, he added.

While the Sunnis have worked effectively with the U.S. military to combat foreign threats like al Qaeda, he fears these same Sunni elements could undermine any attempt at power-sharing with Shia officials at the national level.

The Sunni-Shia tensions are also a point of concern for James Phillips, a Middle East expert with the conservative Heritage Foundation. However, the military and strategic success connected with the troop surge has opened the door to new political possibilities that must be seized in 2008.

"The key is to consolidate the military gains of the surge and translate them into political progress, and this going to be difficult," he acknowledged. However, the Shite government has a "golden opportunity" to reach out to Sunnis who were forced to live in al Qaeda dominated areas, Phillips said.

Just a few months after some Bush administration critics declared the war as being lost, a new political reality has emerged, he said.

"Many Americans see the war is not lost, and in fact is going better," Phillips said. "Therefore, we can't afford just to pull the plug and walk away. Even those who say this is a civil war have to account for the fact that if the wrong faction wins the civil war, our security will be undermined for decades to come.

"We walked away from a civil war in Afghanistan and regretted that on September 11. If we walk away from Iraq, we could regret it in the future when Iraq becomes a base for launching terrorist attacks on Americans at home or in Middle East," Phillips added.

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