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Author Predicts Democratic Majority by 2008
Marc Morano
Senior Staff Writer
John B. Judis predicts nation's changing demographics and shifting political scene will create a Democratic majority in the country by 2008.
Judis, co-author of the book "The Emerging Democratic Majority," theorizes that the growing immigrant population and minority electorate are adding to a trend of more white collar professionals voting Democratic, which may doom the GOP back to minority status.
"In terms of issues and what matters to people, politics have been moving towards a certain kind of Democratic politics and away from Republican conservatism of the 1980s,"he said.
Judis, who also as senior editor of New Republic magazine, believes the voters have been moving away from the Republican Party since 1994 and that the Democratic Party is setting the domestic political agenda.
"There was a kind of conservative Republican burst right after the November '94 election and it turned out that people didn't really want that, they were voting for conservatives for other reasons," Judis said.
Given the seesaw of power between congressional Republicans and Democrats over the past eight years, Republican National Committee spokesman Kevin Sheridan rejected the premise of the book.
"It doesn't sound like [Judis'] argument holds water at all," said Sheridan. "The polling shows the American people trusted Republicans to act on issues they cared about."
Noting the book was published before the recent GOP successes in the mid-term elections, Sheridan quipped, "sounds like [the book] is a little behind the times."
Immigrants and Minorities Called Key to Democratic Party Success
Looking at projected demographic trends, Judis' political prognosis might give more pause to Republicans who want to hold on to power.
The book argues that an increase of immigrant and minority voters is changing the political landscape, with growing numbers of Asian, Hispanic and African-American voters that tend to vote Democratic.
"Immigrants and minorities only made up about 10 percent of the electorate in 1972," Judis said, noting that by 2010, that number is projected to be 25 percent of voters.
Another trend he said is working against the GOP is that white-collar professionals, such as doctors, lawyers and teachers, "are now becoming more Democratic."
But Kellyanne Conway, president and CEO of The Polling Company, said the Democratic Party might have its own problem with shifting demographics.
"Look at the changing demographics of the Democratic Party. The vice presidential hopeful from 2000, the presidential hopefuls... in 2004, are all white male millionaires," said Conway. "This is the modern Democratic Party."
The mid-term election replacements for two incumbent Democratic senators - Paul Wellstone of Minnesota and Bob Torricelli of New Jersey - reinforces what Conway considers the growing image of a Democratic Party that's top-heavy with rich, white men.
"Look what they did in both New Jersey and Minnesota. They replaced two white male senators with two white male" candidates, said Conway.
Who's Taking Whose Issues?
Judis believes that the country has accepted the basic tenets of liberalism and has a decreasing appetite to dismantle government programs, which he said is illustrated by the number of Republicans who won in 2002 and parroted the Democratic Party on certain issues.
"You had a kind of political cross dressing occurring in the election. Republicans like [Colorado Senator] Wayne Allard said he was tougher on corporate crime and would protect the environment more than his Democratic opponent," said Judis.
"So they were in effect using Democratic issues to defeat the Democrats," Judis explained.
Adding to the results of Nov. 5 was what he called voter distraction from domestic issues that have historically helped the Democratic Party.
"If the war hadn't loomed, especially with the economy the way it is, the Democrats would have done considerably better," Judis said.
Sheridan was unfazed by the author's analysis, and argued that it was Democrats who were left copying the GOP on issues in the recent elections.
"If anything, the Democrats tried to sound like Republicans this year," he said. "They were not successful defining themselves."
Changing With the Times
While demographics are in a constant state of flux, Sheridan said the GOP is continually trying to address the changes that come with the evolving makeup of the electorate and expand its voter outreach.
"Even though the Republican message resonated with 53 percent of the voters... we are never going to have the Republicans take for granted their recent success," Sheridan said.
Wall Street Journal editorialist John Fund was less critical of Judis' arguments, and thinks the book has some valid points in spite of the GOP's victories Nov. 5.
"While Republicans continue to pop the champagne corks, they would do well to sober up soon," Fund said of the book in an Opinion Journal editorial following the mid-term election.
He said the book "makes valuable points" about the electorates shifting demographics, and he cautioned the GOP that 'once the celebrations die down, the party would be well advised to focus attention on where it is losing votes as well as where it is gaining them."
Eating Ground Glass
But Larry Sabato, a political analyst with the University of Virginia, is not persuaded by the conclusions in Judis' book.
"The authors ignore the totally unpredictable, random nature of politics and they also ignore the ability of the Republicans to modify their appeal to groups like Hispanics," Sabato said.
He took particular exception with the book's contention that voters are rejecting conservatism and to win the GOP has to adopt Democratic domestic issues. "That is simply not true," said Sabato. "There are Republican solutions to Social Security and health care, and it turned out that those solutions are appealing to people."
According to Sabato, the book "assumes that certain inexorable forces will produce a Democratic dominated electorate. It may turn out that way, but I can easily see how it won't."
Sabato had his own warning for Judis and other political prognosticators: "He who lives by the crystal ball ends up eating ground glass."
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