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Is the battle against same-sex marriage already lost? With homosexual marriage now legal in Massachusetts and with momentum toward legalization now spreading across the nation, homosexual advocates are increasingly confident that victory is in sight. Now, some conservatives are beginning to wonder if the gay activists might be right. Christopher Caldwell, writing in The Financial Times, notes the momentum of the gay rights movement as it achieved its great victory in Massachusetts. "In gaining full legal marriage rights in an important state, American gays have effected the quickest transition from pariah status to protected status in the history of civil rights movements." Caldwell, a senior editor at The Weekly Standard, appears certain that same-sex marriage is now an established social reality.

A similar case is made by Max Boot, senior fellow at the Counsel on Foreign Relations. A keen observer of social trends, Boot argues that opposition to same-sex marriage is "another lost cause for the social conservatives." Also writing in The Financial Times, Boot argues, "For decades, social conservatives in the U.S. have been fighting and losing culture wars. Contraception and abortion--once taboo topics--have been enshrined in the law. The rates of pre-marital sex, out-of-wedlock births and divorce have soared since the 1950's. In school, prayer is out, sex education is in. On television, characters used to say 'gee whiz' and sleep in twin beds; now they curse as if they had Tourette's syndrome and flash skin as if they were Gypsy Rose Lee."

Together, both Caldwell and Boot would counsel fellow conservatives to throw in the towel on the issue of homosexual marriage. The end of this debate is already decided, concludes Boot, who argues "there is little mystery about how the latest culture war over gay marriage will turn out." Really? "Opponents of same-sex marriages may have public opinion on their side for now, but they have all but lost this battle. How do I know? Simply by examining the arguments on both sides."

Boot goes on to argue that the advocates of same-sex marriage "speak in the powerful language of civil rights and liken their cause to that of African Americans fighting anti-miscegenation laws in years past."

Opposition to same-sex marriage, Boot asserts, is rooted only in theology. "At one time the case would have been open and shut: sodomy is a sin, period. Many may still believe that, but that is no longer a tenable argument in our secularized politics."

According to Boot, conservatives are losing the same-sex marriage debate because the culture will eventually buy the argument that this is about civil rights, not about morality. Once a movement gains civil rights status in the public mind, victory is ultimately assured, he reflects. Beyond this, Boot points to a desensitization of the culture on issues of homosexuality in general. Once newspapers began carrying homosexual wedding announcements and television began featuring a plethora of homosexual characters, the homosexual lifestyle became mainstreamed and thus accepted. As Boot comments, "Same-sex kisses, once shockingly daring, are now as common on TV as commercials for Levitra or Prozac."

Christopher Caldwell, on the other hand, traces acceptance of same-sex marriage to the AIDS crisis. According to Caldwell's analysis, AIDS functioned as a force to bring the homosexual community together into a potent political force. Furthermore, the tragedy of AIDS also transformed homosexuals into a victim group, and public sympathy quickly followed.

Are Boot and Caldwell right? Is opposition to same-sex marriage already a lost cause? We must certainly hope not, for the redefinition of marriage will effectively destroy the central organizing unit of society. In a day of rampant moral relativism and social experimentation, Americans have been engaged in a free-for-all exercise in cultural revolution. But when the experiment is directed at marriage, the fallout is sure to be uniquely tragic. The legalization and cultural acceptance of same-sex marriage will mean, ultimately, the destruction of marriage itself. Without a coherent vision of marriage, the entire society will eventually find itself completely unable to regulate sexual behavior or personal relationships.