WASHINGTON -- The Bush administration's goal of establishing democracy in Iraq may be difficult to achieve because the country has so few functioning social structures, but fears that an Islamic theocracy will take over may also be exaggerated, according to several policy experts.
Prospects for democracy in Iraq are weak, Michael Hudson, professor of Arab studies at Georgetown University, said last week at a forum sponsored by the Policy Institute for Religion and State. However, he noted, "the good news is that we're not starting with a blank slate."
Hudson said that after World War II, Iraq had some functioning elements of a democratic society, including political parties, social structures and professional networks.
However, Saddam Hussein's one-party regime broke down much of that sense of political participation, he said. The independent social structures that survived were religious and kinship-based, which is why Hudson believes many people are coalescing around Muslim clerics in the aftermath of the fall of Baghdad.
While this has caused some fear in the United States that Iraqis will instill an Islamic theocracy, Hillel Fradkin, president of the Ethics and Public Policy Center, said in a telephone interview this possibility could be offset by the amount of religious diversity in Iraq, even within religious groups like the Shiite Muslims, who make up 60 percent of the population.
It is "precisely this diversity that means it will be very difficult for one or another group to think that if a theocracy was set up, that it would get to appoint the theocrat," Fradkin said.
Hali Jilani, a freelance journalist and member of the board of advisers for the Policy Institute for Religion and State, joined the panel via satellite phone from Baghdad to talk about potential leadership for the country.
She said Iraqis want their new leadership to be from within the country, but most cannot name a single possible candidate when asked. Jilani claimed there are no home-grown dissidents in Iraq and said she believes Iraqis will have to turn to exiles for leadership.
While she acknowledged this leadership could likely come from the majority Shiite population, she also emphasized this leadership will have to be extremely moderate and secular.
The Policy Institute for Religion and State has its own plan for encouraging democracy in Iraq and other troubled regions, like Afghanistan. The program, for which the institute is seeking federal funding, proposes to teach potential leaders of countries like Iraq and Afghanistan the principles of democracy through an immersion program in the United States.
Bruce Robertson, faculty associate at Johns Hopkins University and a member of the institute's advisory board, said this type of program would give students the opportunity to see a real working democracy, meet everyday Americans, experience a free market economy and practice religious freedom.
