Evangelical Vote Shifting Democratic, Poll Indicates

CNSNews.com) - Poll data from the March 4 primary in Ohio show that more than four out of ten white evangelical Christians cast their vote for a Democratic candidate. According to the liberal groups that sponsored the poll, the data indicate that white evangelicals are interested in a broad range of issues and are shifting their voting behavior.

However, some conservative evangelical leaders dismissed the poll's findings as insignificant, and Christian Coalition founder Ralph Reed said the poll's methodology was flawed.

The exit poll -- funded by the liberal activist groups The Sojourners, the Center for American Progress Action Fund, and Faith in Public Life -- is based a telephone survey conducted by Zogby International on March 4. It revealed that 57 percent of Ohio's white Christian evangelical voters cast their ballots for Republican candidates while the remaining 43 percent voted for Democrats.

The poll also showed that 54 percent of evangelical voters identified themselves with a "broader agenda," beyond abortion and same-sex marriage to include ending poverty, protecting the environment, and combating HIV/AIDS. Thirty-nine percent favored a more limited agenda of opposing abortion and same-sex marriage.

According to MSNBC exit polls from the general presidential elections in 2004, 76 percent of those calling themselves evangelicals in Ohio voted for George W. Bush (R-Tex.), with the remaining 24 percent voted for Sen. John Kerry (D-Mass.).

"As a result of these polls, it is no longer possible to consider evangelicals as a monolithic voting block," said Robert P. Jones, a religion and politics consultant and scholar affiliated with the liberal American Center for Progress Action Fund, which is a 501c(3) sister organization of the liberal American Center for Progress. "Among evangelicals we are seeing something like one-fifth progressive, one-third moderate, and one-half conservative."

But Ralph Reed, political strategist and former president of the conservative Christian Coalition, told Cybercast News Service that the poll lacks credibility. "I don't think there is any evidence to support that conclusion," he said. "This poll is so flawed statistically because they deliberately chose a primary where it showed twice as many Republicans than Democrats and then trumped up the findings as if they were historic."

"The data is badly skewed because there was not a competitive Republican primary in Ohio but there was, I dare say, the most competitive primary in the history of the Democratic Party," he said. "Compare what Obama and Clinton spent to what Huckabee and McCain spent. They probably spent a nickel between them in Ohio. Obviously, less Republicans, evangelical or not, showed up to vote."

Richard Nathan, senior Pastor of the \ul Vineyard Church \ulnone , a conservative evangelical Columbus, Ohio-based non-denominational mega-church, which claims a membership of almost 12,000 people, disagreed. He said the poll numbers reveal a trend he has witnessed in his own congregation.

"We are seeing diversification in voting patterns," he said. "Eight years ago, it would have been the case that the dominant issue you would always hear about was the pro-life issue narrowly defined as anti-abortion. Today, I am hearing consistently about a much broader agenda, and I have been hearing that consistently for the last four or five years."

David Keene, president of the American Conservative Union, told Cybercast News Service he also finds the data to be insignificant. "If I were a candidate, I wouldn't take this to be a serious predictor. I would take it as a sign that this vote is out there, and that it has not yet been captured."

Reed also took issue with the part of the poll that found that white evangelical voters would prefer a "broader agenda" to include fighting poverty and ending abortion, among other issues.

"If you put the choice of a 'narrow agenda' or a 'broad agenda' before me, I would certainly choose the broad agenda and I am the founder of the Christian Coalition," he said. "That does not mean I am becoming a liberal."

Rev. Jim Wallis, president of The Sojourners, said the data shouldn't be read as evangelicals dismissing traditional staple issues, such as sexuality and abortion. He described the new evangelical movement as preserving important aspects of the old platform but also taking up new issues.

"Sanctity of life is still important but more broadly defined," said Wallis. "Darfur is a now a sanctity of life issue now too. Evangelicals now care about poverty, and the environment, and, yes, the sanctity of life."

"This polling is clear: The evangelical agenda is changing and it is wider and deeper than it was in 2004," he said. "Clearly, poverty, climate change, the environment, HIV/AIDS, war and peace are now evangelical issues."

Shaun Casey, a visiting fellow at the liberal Center for American Progress Action Fund, said the data from Ohio is only a token of a much larger trend among evangelicals across the country. "This poll indicates what I call a real political and theological restlessness among evangelicals. We may have seen the high water mark of evangelicals voting with the Republican Party in 2004," he said. "It seems clear to me that today they seem less comfortable in that camp."

"The small data sample we have now indicates something big is a-foot," Casey said. "This could be the largest story after November 4, 2008 -- in 2004, Bush carried the evangelical vote. Evangelicals may be the deciding swing vote coming up to this election."

Wallace went on to accuse America's media of operating with outdated ideas of evangelicals. "How much data does it take to change old media scripts?" he asked. "I just wonder when the media script will change. I am just waiting for the press to follow the data and not their old scripts. There is no doubt now what is happening in the country. The agenda is changing and it will change the outcome of the election."

Reed disagreed, however, saying this is a case of Wallace's group trying to snooker the media rather than the other way around. "They are just trying to convince you and other reporters that evangelicals are moving in a liberal direction, which they are not," he said.

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