NEW ORLEANS -- An ongoing study by Bill Day at New Orleans Baptist Theological Seminary revealed that only 60 percent of all the greater New Orleans-area churches are open and functioning one year after Hurricane Katrina.
Day, associate professor of evangelism and church health and associate director of the Leavell Center for Evangelism and Church Health, presented the preliminary findings of his study, “The Impact of Hurricane Katrina on the Viability of Churches in the Greater New Orleans Area,” during the 29th annual meeting of the Southern Baptist Research Fellowship Sept. 21 at New Orleans Seminary.
The goal of the research, Day said, is to determine which churches will close their doors because of the storm, which churches will survive and which churches will actually see growth. The research study focuses on the five parishes that represent the New Orleans metro area -- Jefferson, Orleans, Plaquemines, St. Bernard and St. Tammany parishes. Not limited to Baptist churches, Day is studying all area churches.
Day found that only 905 of the 1,508 churches that existed before Katrina are functioning one year after the storm. The research revealed that 60 percent of Southern Baptist churches in the five-parish area are functioning.
His research will not end there. Day wants to know why some churches survived and others did not. These findings could help churches in other areas overcome future natural disasters.
“Unfortunately, some churches will not survive. [They will] never come back after Katrina,” he said. “Some churches, however, will survive. Actually, some churches will grow even after something like Katrina.
“I really wanted to know why churches grow, not just so we can learn something here that would help us later on .... New Orleans is not the only place that will ever suffer terrible devastation,” Day added. “What can be learned from the greatest natural disaster that’s ever struck the United States that we can apply not just here, but elsewhere?
“This is not a question I can answer right now, it probably isn’t a question I can answer even a year from now,” he said. “I’ll be looking at it over the next five years.”
Day began researching “functioning” and “non-functioning” churches in April. For Day, a “functioning” or “operating” church simply means a church that is regularly meeting together in the five-parish area. Many churches that have been deemed “functioning” are not meeting in their own building. Some are renting, others are meeting in loaned space. Churches that are not meeting, or have moved outside of the five-parish area are considered “non-functioning” or “non-operating.”
“Franklin Avenue Baptist Church has been the largest Southern Baptist church in the state of Louisiana,” Day said. “They experienced major flood damage, but they are considered operating even through they are not meeting at their former location. They are meeting at First Baptist Church of New Orleans.”
Day’s research also revealed that the percentage of functioning churches decreases in areas that received the most damage from the storm and subsequent flooding. In Orleans Parish and coastal Plaquemines Parish, only 40 percent of churches are functioning. In St. Bernard Parish, especially hard-hit by storm surge, only 20 percent of the churches are functioning.
With the initial research out of the way, Day hopes to identify the variables that led to the survival or demise of these churches. Day also knows that only time will tell whether these churches actually survive. Some that survived the storm will not survive during the long recovery process.
Day has identified five contextual variables that he believes will influence the viability of churches in the area. These variables are the maximum wind speed at the church location, the maximum water depth at the location, community repopulation, denominational affiliation of a church, and the health of the congregation.
“Not every place in the five-parish area was flooded,” Day said. “The wind speed at the church might be a factor in it’s ability to survive particularly in combination with other factors.
“You might have a lot of money come in from the insurance company that’s going to help you rebuild the facility, but if there is nobody there, it’s going to be pretty hard to get your church back operating,” he added.
Day will utilize research from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) to determine wind speeds and flood depth at specific church locations. He believes churches located in the areas with the worst flooding and/or the worst wind will have the hardest time surviving.
To illustrate his point Day showed a map of the New Orleans area. Red squares on the map illustrated non-functioning churches and green squares represented functioning churches. He pointed to the Lower Ninth Ward of New Orleans. The area, which received some of the most significant flooding, was filled with red squares.
Over in Jefferson Parish, where there was little flooding, the map was dominated by green squares. However, Day pointed out two red squares close together. These two non-functioning churches were in an area of Kenner that received significant flooding.
While determining just how many churches have denominational affiliation, Day believes being a part of a denomination will be a key factor in determining the long-term viability of a church.
Another important factor for church viability will be how quickly the surrounding community returns. According to repopulation data gathered by RAND Gulf States Policy Institute, the amount of flooding an area received has influenced repopulation in Orleans Parish.
In September, the RAND study showed that only 10 percent of the population has returned to areas that received a mean flood depth of four or more feet. Experts project that only 30 percent of the population will return by September 2008 in areas that received a mean flood depth of four feet or more.
The same study projects a population increase for the areas of Orleans Parish that received no flooding.
“What’s going on with the churches pretty well tells you what’s going on with the community,” Day said. “If 60 percent of the churches are not functioning then that tells you something about how many people might be coming back.”
Day believes that over the next five years he will discover other variables that influence the viability of churches, but he knows quantitative research will not tell the whole story.
“I’ve become aware that besides doing statistical research, I need to do what is called qualitative research,” Day said. “I will find special situations that just have to be described for you to understand why this church came back.”
Day said that he believes some churches will survive and thrive against all odds.
“Part of my research is going to involve telling other people’s stories that I hope will be an inspiration but also will be a guide to helping us understand how other churches can come back from something like this too,” he said.
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