Is Belarus Partnering with Russia to Perform Hybrid Attacks on NATO Nations?
Apparently, there’s nothing like a large number of weather balloons originating from one country and floating into the airspace of a neighboring country to put that country in a state of alert. Especially if the balloons are coming from an ally of Russia. This is the situation between Belarus and Poland.
When the wind is right, the balloons cross into Poland’s airspace. There are typically crates of cigarettes dangling from the balloons. There have been incidents that were so bad that it caused temporary restrictions on commercial airports. Though Belarus claims that this is only the work of smugglers, Poland isn’t convinced and sees the balloons as a ruse for a much bigger effort, often referred to as hybrid warfare. GPS tracking equipment is often attached to the balloons so that the balloons can be retrieved, according to Euro News.
Polish Military on Standby Regarding its National Security
“The Belarusian side made another attempt at reconnaissance and checking the reaction of the Polish air defense systems,” the Operational Command of the Polish Armed Forces wrote in a report on X picked up by the AP regarding the incidents from Jan. 31 to Feb. 1.
Though the Polish military is claiming that there isn’t presently a threat to Poland’s air safety or the safety of its citizens, the Polish military is still on standby regarding its national security.
“The purpose of such incursions is to test the readiness of our anti-aircraft and radio electronic systems. We should register these incursions. But they also aim to map the territory of the Republic of Poland that is NATO territory, which is hostile to Russia, and to map points that are strategic from a military point of view,” Col. Marek Utracki, former Deputy head of the military counterintelligence service, told Poland Daily Live.
Belarus has used weather balloons on Lithuania
Poland isn’t the only country that Belarus seems to be subjecting to hybrid warfare. Lithuania, which borders both Poland and Belarus, has also had weather balloons flown into its airspace. There was such a large number of them in the past that Lithuania had to declare a national emergency, which resulted in a move to make major investments in defense technology systems.
“A comprehensive set of measures has been taken to counter and mitigate the threat, based on the safety-first approach,” an official in the Lithuanian Ministry of Foreign Affairs Communication Department told DefenseScoop.
“The launch of air balloons, disguised as tobacco smuggling, is just one line of action of an ongoing Belarus hybrid campaign against the EU. Since 2021, Belarus has been instrumentalizing migration to undermine the security of the EU’s Eastern border and put our societies and governments under pressure,” A Lithuanian MFA Communication Department official told DefenseScoop.
Weather Balloons and Latvia
The country of Latvia, which borders Belarus, Lithuania, and Russia, is yet another country being plagued by weather balloons from Belarus. As is occurring with the other countries, cases of cigarettes are typically attached.
It’s not unusual for smugglers to work together with the Belarus government and engage in the use of weather balloons. Not only can these be a distraction from illegal migrants that are being shipped over the border, but the flight path of the balloons, the manner and speed in which they’re tracked and retrieved, and any efforts NATO makes to bring them down would all be of interest to adversaries of NATO, such as Belarus and Russia, according to Latvian Public Media.
Russia has used weather balloons on Ukraine
“Russia wants Ukraine to waste its ammunition on these balloons, which [the balloons] effectively cost them [Russia] nothing at all,” Yuriy Ihnat, a spokesman for Ukraine’s air force, said on a Ukrainian television report picked up by NPR.
Another trick that Russia has used on Ukraine in the past (and vice versa) is floating balloons high, and long range drones low so that radars become overloaded and defending forces pull back, according to The Strategic Edge.
China used a Weather Balloon on the United States
Such tactics aren’t exclusive to Russia and Belarus. Back in 2023, China, which is a Russian ally, sent a weather balloon to the U.S. that the Biden administration allowed to float over Alaska, across Canada, and into America’s Midwest before it was finally shot down by an F-22 fighter jet off of South Carolina’s Coast. The balloon was packed with technology that included a satellite communication module, sensors, and tech from a minimum of five American firms. Certainly, the equipment could have allowed China to spy on Americans and gather information about military bases over which it was allowed to float, according to Newsweek.
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Photo Credit: ©Getty Images / Encyclopaedia Britannica / Contributor
Originally published February 11, 2026.
